Science University Research Symposium (SURS)

Publication Date

11-24-2025

College

College of Sciences & Mathematics

Department

Biology, Department of

SURS Faculty Advisor

John Niedzwiecki

Presentation Type

Poster Presentation

Abstract

Understanding the phenology of migratory species is key to tracking the effects of climate change on these populations. The population of migratory songbirds has seen a sharp decline in recent years in part due to factors driven by climate change. As these populations fall, ecosystems across the globe lose species essential for the maintenance of prey, predator, and plant populations. Long-term monitoring of these migratory populations is essential for understanding how climate change affects the timing and success of migration. Using data collected from a long-term bird banding station at Percy Warner Nature Center in Nashville, Tennessee, we focused on monitoring the success and arrival times of the five most common migratory species recorded at the station: Indigo Bunting (INBU), Myrtle Warbler (MYWA), Magnolia Warbler (MAWA), Swainson’s Thrush (SWTH), and Tennessee Warbler (TEWA) from fall of 1983 to fall of 2022. We analyzed the captures of these species against temperature and year to establish whether there was a significant correlation between arrival times and climate conditions. There was a significant correlation between annual temperature and year, with a trend towards increasing temperature every year. We also found a significant negative trend between the average date of arrival for all species surveyed and the year. When pooled, we found a small but significant negative trend for year, temperature, and average yearly arrival of fall migrants. However, this trend was not seen when species were assessed individually. Future studies should include additional climate factors, as well as expanding the study to include a larger number of species and banding stations.

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