The Judicial Indicator: Measuring State Legislative Responsiveness to Constituent Punitive Mood

Publication Date

2026

Presentation Length

15 minutes

College

College of Liberal Arts & Social Sciences

Department

Political Science, Department of

Student Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Mentor

Nathan Griffith

Presentation Type

Article

Summary

Abstract: The hallmark of a functioning representative government is the ability of the elected to act upon the wishes of the electorate. I assess whether state-level legislators respond to shifts in public opinion of sentencing policy, or punitive mood, with corresponding sentencing policy. I first hypothesize that the election of state supreme court justices serves as an indicator of public punitive mood. This is tested using available state supreme court campaign information in each election in each state since 2021, as well as the results of the elections in terms of percentage of votes each candidate receives. I then hypothesize that state legislators pick up on this signal and will respond in turn with sentencing legislation that matches the direction of the election results. This is tested using NCSL’s crime policy database, which contains all sentencing policy passed in each state since 2021. The evidence demonstrates, first of all, that public punitiveness is a definitive factor in the election of state supreme court justices, and can therefore be assigned as an indicator of public punitive mood. However, it remains unclear whether state legislators look to supreme court elections as an indicator of how to satisfy the public, as several other possible explanations cannot be rejected.

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