March Madness Predictors

Publication Date

2026

Presentation Length

15 minutes

College

Jack C. Massey College of Business

Department

Economics and Finance

Student Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Mentor

Dustin Rumbaugh

Presentation Type

Talk/Oral

Summary

The winner of the NCAA tournament has been ranked among the top twelve teams of the Week 6 AP Poll every year since 1988, with only one exception. As the transfer portal and NIL deals evolve, programs’ success relies on their recruits and track record. Basketball analytics plays a significant role in predicting team performance. In this study, key statistics for ranking and predicting performance of the top NCAA Division 1 basketball teams will be tested for significance, including strength of schedule, win-loss percentage, returning starters’ number of played minutes, etc. Data for this project is pulled from KenPom and SRCBB, and the chosen predictive model will be tested on its accuracy compared to the real results of the 2025 NCAA tournament. The results provide insight into the effectiveness of early-season rankings and team-level analytics as tools for forecasting championship performance.

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