Fragile Economies, Fragile States: How Economic Weakness Fuels Military Coups

Publication Date

Spring 3-23-2026

College

College of Liberal Arts & Social Sciences

Department

Political Science, Department of

Student Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Mentor

Nathan Griffith

Presentation Type

Talk/Oral

Summary

This prospectus examines the causes of military coups in developing countries. The existing literature highlights multiple causes of coups, such as weak political institutions, factionalized militaries, and power-sharing struggles. However, this study aims to argue that economic underdevelopment is one of the most consistent and strongest indicators of military coups in developing countries. The study proposes that poverty and slow economic growth weaken civilian government, which increases the chance of military intervention.

To test this hypothesis, this study utilizes a cross-national quantitative research design using data from developing countries between 1960 and 2020. The dependent variable is measured using the Cline Center Coup d’Etat Project, and the independent variable is operationalized through GDP per capita and GDP growth rates derived from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The study focuses exclusively on developing countries to isolate variation within similar structural contexts to better understand why some states are more prone to coups than others.

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