Institutional Predictability & Student Achievement

Publication Date

Spring 4-2026

Presentation Length

15 minutes

College

College of Liberal Arts & Social Sciences

Department

Political Science, Department of

Student Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Mentor

Nathan Griffith

Presentation Type

Talk/Oral

Summary

Students in Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA) schools consistently outperform students in nearly every U.S. state on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), even though military families often experience frequent moves and parental deployments. Existing research points to explanations such as centralized governance, strong teacher hiring standards, and supportive military communities, but these studies do not fully explain the mechanism connecting these factors to higher student achievement. This study proposes institutional predictability as the missing explanation. Drawing on cognitive load theory, it argues that stable routines, consistent expectations, and orderly school environments reduce unnecessary cognitive strain on students, allowing them to devote more mental resources to learning. Using a comparative research design, this project examines DoDEA schools alongside school systems of 50 states. Institutional predictability will be measured through an original index and analyzed with NAEP achievement data using regression models.

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS