Predicting Criminal Behavior in Major US Cities

Authors

• Madison A. Price, Belmont UniversityFollow

Publication Date

2026

Presentation Length

Poster/Gallery presentation

College

College of Sciences & Mathematics

Department

Math and Computer Science, Department of

Student Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Mentor

Christina Davis

Metadata/Fulltext

Metadata ONLY

Presentation Type

Poster

Summary

In recent years, especially post pandemic, there has been a decrease in crime in the United States. Unfortunately, the country’s violent crime rates are still significantly higher compared to similar high-income countries, so what predicts crime in major American cities? There is tons of research to support the idea that demographics can offer some insight into predicting crime. There are countless online resources that seek to identify major crime centrals in the United States (Petrino, 2025). In the late 1990s, researchers noticed that crime rates in cities had a downward slope due to an important contributor: demographic change (Fox & Piquero, 2003). In cities like London, scientists have already begun to understand how human behavior and demographics can predict crime. In a study headed by Italian professor Audrey Bogomolov, it was found that the aforementioned predictors can be definitively used to predict crime (Bogomolov et al., 2014). Since all of the prior research is primarily psychologically based, I propose a further extension of research that will lie solely on statistical evidence. I predict that we will find that similar demographics of cities will better predict the rate of crime in those cities. This project can be used to provide these cities with crucial information they need to predict crime. In Los Angeles, similar techniques have already been implemented and the LAPD is thus able to allocate resources to those areas most affected by crime (Cung, 2013). It is my hope that my project will be able to do the same. The three pieces of literature I obtained doing background research have been very insightful on helping me gain knowledge on my desired topic. I used them to frame my basic understanding on what has been found on the topic and what I can do moving forward. Most of my sources that I have found are up to date, save for one that is from 2003. That 2003 study though, conducted by Fox and Piquero, gave me crucial insight on the first findings on the topic. Since that study, a lot has changed in regards to the topic. It’s because of studies like that that we can understand how demographics plays a role in crime prediction, and how we can implement new studies, like the other two I collected, to explicitly hypothesize that demographics will make an impact and how we can implement new practices to support demographics most impacted by criminal behavior. Because there is so much research on the topic, there is a continued support and trust that findings will prove to support the idea I am trying to maintain. I will utilize existing data from the US Census and cities' crime data to predict criminal behavior based on demographics. Data will be analyzed and the results will be presented at SPARK.

Recommended Citation

Price, Madison A., "Predicting Criminal Behavior in Major US Cities" (2026). SPARK Symposium Presentations. 1024.
https://repository.belmont.edu/spark_presentations/1024