Susceptibility to Public Opinion and Likelihood to Engage in War

Publication Date

Spring 2025

Presentation Length

15 minutes

College

College of Liberal Arts & Social Sciences

Department

Political Science, Department of

Student Level

Undergraduate

SPARK Category

Research

Faculty Advisor

Dr. Nathan Griffith

Presentation Type

Talk/Oral

Summary

Why do democracies go to war less often when they are more likely to win military engagements than other regime types? It is commonly believed that democracies are less likely to go to war, and scholars give a variety of reasons answering ‘why’. Some of these reasons are that democratic institutions make war less likely, while some argue that the voice of the people prevents democracies from going to war. The most satisfactory answer is that public opinion prevents politicians from acting for their own self-interest, instead forcing them to act on behalf of the people. Thus the strength of public opinion would affect a regime’s likelihood to go to war. In a democracy where the public is able to hold its politicians more accountable, that democracy will be less likely to go to war. This paper will examine the relationship between public opinion and war by using data on inter-state conflicts, a measure of politician’s susceptibility to public opinion, and a careful selection of democracies.

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