A Bayesian Approach to Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) Reconstruction
Publication Date
2025
Presentation Length
Poster/Gallery presentation
College
College of Sciences & Mathematics
Department
Math and Computer Science, Department of
Student Level
Undergraduate
Faculty Advisor
Will Best
SPARK Session
Data Science
Presentation Type
Poster
Summary
In the past 10 years there has been an alarming rise of MLB players who have had to receive ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction, or Tommy John Surgery, to address and fix issues present with the elbow of pitchers after long, consistent use in competitive games. Research has shown that there are correlations present between player injury rates and consistent statistics of pitches thrown by those who have had to receive the surgery. Type of pitch thrown, the rate of pitching, and the spin of a baseball have all been found to have significant impact on shortening the career of a pitcher and expediting their downturn until surgery is required. Building off these previous findings, this project used a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling and analysis to develop a predictive model. It incorporates pitching data from players with and without UCL reconstruction to accurately forecast whether a player is at risk of requiring UCL reconstruction before showing signs of damage.
Recommended Citation
Pinter, Brady, "A Bayesian Approach to Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) Reconstruction" (2025). SPARK Symposium Presentations. 165.
https://repository.belmont.edu/spark_presentations/165